The curtain falls on New Labour

 

David Miliband’s retirement from politics signals the departure yet another stalwart from the New Labour era, but will Ed Miliband and Ed Balls be able to successfully negotiate the curtain call.

Despite their attempts to re-re-brand the Labour party as ‘One Nation Labour’, both Balls and Miliband have found it difficult to shake their toxic ties with the New Labour era. Each week the coalition parties remind the two Ed’s of their accountability as part of Gordon Brown’s cabinet. Supporters of the Conservative party, the Liberal Democrats and UKIP are happy to hear the broken record placing ultimate blame for the ongoing economic situation at the door of The Labour Party, however it appears the vital swing voters are less sure. This month saw Labour take the biggest ever recorded lead in YouGov polls at 15 points, whilst average poll ratings from UKPR (UK Polling Report) have Labour with a 10 point lead.

Although, when looking specifically at economic performance the polls return a rather bleak picture for Labour and Shadow Chancellor Ed Balls. Only 26% believe that George Osborne is doing a good job, but when asked who would do a better job with the economy, George Osborne wins with 31% to Ed Balls’ rather embarrassing 25%. The ‘none of the above’ option comfortably beat both candidates with a sizeable 44%. Ed Balls may have proved a great success for frustrating the coalition benches, but it appears his value as candidate for Chancellor of the Exchequer has diminished.

Whilst such polling data is helpful to gauge a generalised feeling from the nation, it is often misleading. Voting intention polls have Labour 10 points ahead, yet undoubtedly the key issue at the next election will be the economy. Therefore the prospective candidates for Chancellor, and the rate of growth in the economy may well be the difference between election victory and heartache. The mid-term local election results are equally misleading. Opposition parties are expected to make huge gains, and anything else is deemed a failure. For the more radical political parties, gains made at local elections are often lost at general elections. It is therefore unlikely that UKIP will achieve the 10% of votes that are currently predicted, and it is equally unlikely that Labour will win with a 110 seat majority.

At close fought elections, mistakes and slip ups are pounced upon and exploited, and can ultimately decide the overall outcome. Therefore David Miliband’s resignation today signals a good step forward for Labour. His announcement has removed all speculation of a return to frontline politics and has put an end to the circus surrounding him and his brother Ed. The Labour PR machine now has one less worry and links to the New Labour governments are slowly disintegrating – however whilst Ed Balls sits alongside Ed Miliband on the front bench, links will be made and aspersions cast. The remaining traces of Labour’s not so popular past may be the unravelling of their 2015 election campaign.

Coalition cracks are clear to see

This weekend saw Vince Cable all but confirm the reports of internal disharmony within the Liberal Democrats, by casually throwing his hat into the ring for the leadership of the party… well, almost.

Since the aptly named ‘Con-dem’ coalition formed, there have been quite open and honest rumblings of dissatisfaction within both camps from backbenchers. So does Vince Cable’s admission of a desire to lead the party actually change anything?

The simple answer is yes. At a time when the relationship between the two coalition parties has been reported as being so fragile, with David Cameron and Nick Clegg making public shows of unity and commitment, someone as senior and well respected as Vince Cable would be naive to admit to such a claim as wanting to be the Liberal Democrat leader. Then again it isn’t the first error of judgement he has made, as he spoke rather too honestly for Nick Clegg’s liking to undercover newspaper reporters last year.

Labour now have the ammo to squeeze whatever life is left out of Nick Clegg and his party, and based on the ever improving performances in PMQs you wouldn’t put it past Ed Miliband to do so. Although on this occasion his attitude could be somewhat different. There are many, such as George Eaton author of The Staggers blog for the New Statesman, suggesting that the next general election is likely to lead to another hung parliament in which the Liberal Democrats would once again be the kingmaker. Labour have already made it clear that Nick Clegg must be the first casualty from the Lib Dem front bench if they were to enter in to a Labour-Liberal coalition, so keeping Vince Cable’s integrity intact would be a solid tactical move.

That is not to say that this incident cannot be used to further damage the credibility of the already wounded coalition. Ed Miliband is sure to point out that Vince Cable is simply staying true to his Liberal beliefs, whilst Clegg et al sell out to the Tories. But what effect will this really have on proceedings?

There is the potential for Vince’s comments to be a positive for the Liberal Democrats, if used as the outlet that the backbenchers and junior members need to voice concerns with the political direction that Nick Clegg has been dragging the party in since 2010. Supporting Vince Cable to become the leader for the 2015 general election at Septembers party conference could breathe new life into the Liberals and restore some credibility with the public. For the Lib Dems to perform well in 2015, there needs to be an appearance of delayering within the party.

However the chances are that Vince Cable will be lambasted by members of his own party, and any possibility of him succeeding Nick Clegg as party leader will be extinguished.

In reality, who can blame him for speaking out? It must be frustrating having his experience and knowledge of economics, whilst sitting under the highly inept George Osborne.